Why aren’t there more robots? - Autonomous Tractors edition

original post on LinkedIn

My conclusion: Today’s autonomous tractors are similar to hiring a 14-year-old tractor operator, and that’s not enough value to drive farmer use. There are better ways to use the autonomy technology we have to create value for farmers.

Imagine hiring a 14-year-old to operate your tractor: you need to take them to the field because they can’t drive on the road, they probably don’t know what high quality tilling, planting, spraying or harvesting looks like so the work might not go well, and if something doesn’t work they call you for help. Plus you’re still running your same tractor at $150-300 per hour to do the same work at the same time with minimal cost savings. 

The value added is low and is, more or less, what autonomous tractors offer today. I think we’ll see slow adoption of self-driving tractors that focus on replacing the operator in existing vehicles with little other value offered. 

Instead, the real value of autonomy is unlocking something that was never possible before. 

A simple tractor designed with autonomy in mind is optimized to deliver power-to-ground without any operator frills in the cab. An autonomy-first tractor isn’t one giant machine, it’s a fleet of medium-sized machines. These lightweight autonomy-first tractors can go in wet fields to improve application timing of nutrients or pest control products. Each tractor would be more affordable due to design simplicity and benefit from increased manufacturing scale. 

These new, autonomous fleets increase uptime by removing single points of failure, can reduce the $150-300 per hour operating cost by more than 30%, and 24/7 capability may allow farmers to reduce their fleet size. 

Farmers will be thrilled: tractor fleets that are cheaper to buy, cheaper to run, have better uptime, and unlock new capabilities.

Autonomy-first tractors could result in annual tractor sales shrinking by more than half (measured in dollars) via fewer units sold each at a much lower price. I doubt existing tractor companies will be leaders here, especially in delivering operating cost reduction to farmers.

Autonomous tractors are already here. But I don’t think they’re the right ones, and the future is up for grabs. I’m working with a few folks who also see this new, different path, and the possibilities are huge. If you’re excited by this, or another, way to deliver autonomy to farmers - reach out. I’d love to chat.

P.S. Today’s autonomy is a great deal for farmers who struggle to find any labor at all or for farmers who would rather not operate themselves and do something else with their time. These reasons, however, aren’t economic or about unlocking new ways to work.